With so much political uncertainty as South Africa gears up for the 2024 elections, and analysts and researchers all making such widely varying predictions, could anyone bet on the outcome?
As political parties battle it out for the hearts and minds of voters each one makes election promises more outlandish than the one before. Which one will convince voters on Election Day Wednesday, 29 May?
Do you want to take a bet on who the next president of South Africa will be? Or how about our next Minister of Finance who can hopefully help bring down the cost of living?
Or what about Julius Malema being appointed the Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development post-elections? Perhaps the shrewd money will be on Gayton McKenzie being appointed Minister of Correctional Services.
But if you are tired of all the politicking, the empty promises, the once-in-a-blue moon visit to your neighbourhood, or seeing politicians kissing a non-plussed baby or two, then a light hearted bet on likely – and even unlikely – outcomes might be just the thing for you.
Sunbet has launched a fun online platform where members of the public can place small wagers on election outcomes.
Sunbet COO Gideon Mann said: “Betting on election outcomes is popular around the world. Many bookmakers globally are prepared to take very large bets, but we have limited individual bets because we are more interested in seeing the responses to election outcomes and interest by the public in this sort of entertainment than trying to drive betting volumes.”
According to Mann, the first Trump versus Biden election in 2020 attracted the most bets of all time. It was the single most heavily bet on event not just in the US, but around the world with well over a billion US dollars placed on its outcome.
“Currently, we are also offering bets on the outcomes on a host of other upcoming elections such as those in the UK and Sweden.”
Sunbet customers can bet on a range of outcomes (SEE SIDEBAR BELOW)
A clear case of putting your money where your mouth is
And while some of the outcomes are designed to bring a smile to the faces of hard-pressed South Africans, Mann says there is a level of science behind measuring the sentiment of the voting public.
“At the time of Brexit, most traditional polls pointed to a ‘Stay’ vote. But if you had followed the volume of bets, everything pointed to an exit indicator,” he added. “So in that, as well as other instances, betting figures have provided a far more accurate indicator than polls.
“In South Africa, there are a number of companies that do polling but we don’t believe it is at a level, in terms of methodology and sheer number of polls, which makes this accurate and scientific enough as compared to polls in the US for instance,” he said. “In addition in mature markets where there is a tradition of betting on elections we believe betting outcomes tend to give a more accurate picture of potential outcomes than election polls.”
Allied to this is the fact that the Sunbet platform provides interesting demographic touchpoints on betting participants, including gender and age and home provinces.
“So while we maintain the strictest confidentiality around our customers, we are able to look at aggregate data and say whether more women than men bet on a certain outcome, or what bets were based on age or geographic profile and compare that to our normal distribution of players for skews.”
Playing it safe
Sunbet has limited bets on the election in many ways as this is a new initiative.
“We are mindful of this being abused for the furtherance of political ends, so each registered Sunbet user will only able to bet in limited ways. For example, you will only be able to place a maximum bet on Cyril Ramaphosa to be President, which is smaller than our other markets. No matter who you bet on for President – you will only be able to win the same maximum amount per candidate.
Betting markets on the elections will close at 2am on the 29th of May and final outcomes will be based on pronouncements by the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) or Parliamentary vote depending.
Mann said Sunbet expected betting to pick up heavily in the final days and week before the elections as South Africans “usually leave things till quite late”.
You may even want to have a bet on whether Load Shedding Level 2 or higher will be back within three weeks of the new President being announced by Parliament. Odds on that are currently very low, especially we are heading into the middle of winter.
“Go to Sunbet and share what you believe will be the outcomes of the elections in 2024.”
SIDEBAR
Event 1: SA President
Cyril Ramaphosa = 1/9
John Steenhuisen = 3/1
Paul Mashatile = 4/1
Julius Malema = 10/1
Hermann Mashaba = 10/1
Gayton McKenzie = 25/1
Mmusi Maimane = 50/1
(results when parliament officially confirms after the election)
Event 2: SA Vice – President
Paul Mashatile = 7/20
John Steenhuisen = 5/2
Julius Malema = 5/2
Hermann Mashaba = 5/1
Velenkosini Hlabisa = 5/1
Gayton McKenzie = 10/1
Cyril Ramaphosa = 20/1
Mmusi Maimane = 50/1
(results when parliament officially confirm after the election)
Event 4: ANC % Share of the Vote
ANC below 30% =10/1
ANC 30% to 34.99% = 4/1
ANC 35% to 39.99% = 3/1
ANC 40% to 44.99% = 5/2
ANC 45% to 49.99% = 3/1
ANC 50% to 54.99% = 4/1
ANC above 55% = 7/1
(results when IEC officially confirm after the election)
Event 5: DA % Share of the Vote
DA below 15% =7/1
DA 15% to 17.49% = 4/1
DA 17.5% to 19.99% = 3/1
DA 20% to 22.49% = 5/2
DA 22.5% to 24.99% = 3/1
DA 25% to 27.49% = 4 to 1
DA above 27.50 = 7 to 1
(results when IEC officially confirm after the election)
Event 6: EFF% Share of the Vote
EFF below 7% =5/1
EFF 7% to 8.99% = 4/1
EFF 9% to 10.99% = 3/1
EFF 11% to 12.99% = 2/1
EFF 13% to 14.99% = 3/1
EFF 15% to 16.99% = 4/1
EFF above 17% = 5/1
(results when IEC officially confirm after the election)
Event 7: MK% Share of the Vote
MK below 5% =4 /1
MK 5% to 6.99% = 3/1
MK 7% to 8.99% = 4/1
MK 9% to 10.99% = 3/1
MK 11% to 12.99% = 4/1
MK above 13% = 5/1
(results when IEC officially confirm after the election)
Event 8: ActionSA% Share of the Vote
ActionSA below 2.5% = 3/1
ActionSA 2.5% to 3.99% = 5/2
ActionSA 4% to 5.99% = 3/1
ActionSA above 6% = 3/1
(results when IEC officially confirm after the election)
Event 9: IFP% Share of the Vote
IFP below 2.5% = 3/1
IFP 2.5% to 3.99% = 5/2
IFP 4% to 5.99% = 5/2
IFP above 6% = 3/1
Event 10: Party Membership of Premier of Gauteng
ANC = 7/4
DA = 7/4
ActionSA = 3/1
EFF = 8/1
Event 11: Party Membership of Premier of KwaZulu Natal
ANC = 5/2
DA = 4/1
IFP = 5/2
MK = 5/2
Event 12: Official Load Shedding Level 2 or above Within 3 Weeks of a new President being Announced by Parliament
Loadshedding Level 2 and Above = 1/16
Events 13
– Floyd Shivambu appointed Minister of Finance = 10/1
– Hermann Mashaba appointed Minister of Home Affairs = 10/1
– John Steenhuisen appointed Minister of Sports, Arts & Culture = 5/1
– Julius Malema appointed Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development = 10/1
– Mmusi Maimane appointed as Minister of Tourism = 10/1
– Gayton McKenzie appointed Minister of Correctional Affairs = 5/1
– Fikile Mbalula appointed Minister of Defence = 5/1
– Cassper Nyovest appointed Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture = 100/1
– Rassie Erasmus appointed Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture = 100/1
(official appointment of first cabinet – should ministry names change the closest cabinet position as determined by Sunbet)
- What inspired Sunbet to create this online betting platform for political leaders?
Election betting is extremely popular around the world so we knew that there would be South Africans keen to place a bet on their own elections. To our knowledge, this is a first for SA betting. Some elections see fierce betting activity and to date, the 2020 showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump attracted the most bets of any single event in history – a multiple more than the American Superbowl or even globally popular events such as the UEFA Champions League final.
Often betting markets can provide interesting insights into elections. We know that with Brexit in the UK, the analysts and media all predicted that Britain would vote against leaving the European Union but betting patterns by volume (rather than value) showed that punters were significantly on the side of the UK’s vote to leave.
We intended our election betting to be more light-hearted and fun, so our bet limits are small. We are seeing this more like our coverage of the Jake Paul – Mike Tyson boxing match. In terms of elections, we are also offering bets on the outcome of the UK and Swedish elections in a few weeks and intend to cover the Biden-Trump rematch, which likely will become globally the new biggest-ever betting event.
2. When was it launched?
We started offering election bets on Monday, 20 May 2024
3. How has it been received?
We have seen good interest so far. South Africans tend to place their bets closer to the events, so we are still early in the journey. We have already had a large multiple more punters place bets than any total participant numbers in publicly released election polls.
4. Who are the popular choices?
Cyril Ramaphosa for president! So far, the biggest bet taken by volume. Interestingly to date, 67% of the punters betting on him are ladies under the age of 45 (which is skewed versus other bets). Perhaps he needs to also run for sexiest South African man of the year?
5. How does it work?
The easiest way is to go to https://sunbet.co.za/elections/ and click on one of our election banners to look at all the information, odds, and options. If you don’t have an account, follow the easy signup process (we will automatically link you to the Sun International loyalty program if you have ever been to any of our resort or casino properties). We have loads of options to quickly and easily withdraw winnings or deposit money for bets. Bets result after the IEC or other official announcements occur. Remember though this is only for people over the age of 18 and it is important to bet responsibly.
