Eskom enters the 2026 winter season with a resilient power system, projecting a winter period of continued energy stability from 1 April to 31 August 2026. This positive outlook follows the successful conclusion of the summer period, during which the national grid operated with ongoing sustained reliability. With the Generation Recovery Plan firmly embedded in day‑to‑day operations, Eskom has moved beyond short‑term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security, ensuring that homes, businesses and industries remain powered through the peak winter months.
This stability is underscored by Eskom maintaining a consistent energy supply of 98.9% in the last Financial Year (1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026), a marked improvement from 9% two years ago, reflecting a fundamental strengthening of generation performance, operational discipline and system resilience.
“Eskom, and in turn South Africa, now has a stable electricity platform to operate and grow from. This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as per the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the maintenance of energy security in the future. Eskom is consciously assessing the new capacity build rate across all required technologies as this, along with other socio-economic conditions, will be vital in determining the transition of the coal fired power stations,” said Eskom’s Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.
The winter outlook reflects improved reliability and availability across the generation fleet. Additional capacity has been secured primarily through a 5.2GW reduction in unplanned losses, supplemented by 1.1GW from demand‑side management programmes, enabling Eskom to meet national demand this winter. On this basis, Eskom has a surplus peak capacity of about 6GW over the winter period.
These improvements have enabled Eskom to lower its base‑case assumption for unplanned outages to approximately 12GW, compared to 13GW in the previous winter outlook. Even under higher‑stress conditions, where unplanned losses approach 14GW, the system is expected to remain resilient, with no loadshedding anticipated under the scenarios Eskom plans for.
This Winter 2026 Outlook takes into account Eskom’s expanded customer base. During FY2026, Eskom completed 67 578 new household connections, with a further 2 119 households supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs), which help reduce pressure on the national grid, particularly during peak periods. Despite supplying electricity to these additional customers compared to the previous winter, improved generation reliability, reduced unplanned losses, and strengthened operational buffers support a stable winter outlook, with sufficient capacity to meet expected demand.
“It was very difficult to embed cost savings when our generation fleet was unstable. Today, we have dramatically reduced diesel dependency and saved R26.9 billion compared to FY2023. These savings are a result of strengthened maintenance discipline and project delivery. Every megawatt we return contributes toward economic growth. The restoration of a consistent baseload electricity supply has enabled Eskom to be in a position to support industries in distress, particularly the ferrochrome industry, and play a meaningful role in preventing job losses. The country has invested in Eskom, and we are continuously working to restore this national asset to full health; it is a resource that all citizens have supported,” said Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo.
Sustained performance improvements since March 2023
The stability achieved is a direct outcome of the Generation Recovery Plan, which has delivered sustained, year‑on‑year improvements in system performance since March 2023, including:
- Diesel expenditure reduced by R26.9 billion: Reduced reliance on open‑cycle gas turbine (OCGT) emergency peaking power, resulting in diesel expenditure in FY2026 being at ~R6.4 billion, which is R26.9 billion lower than FY2023, and ~R10 billion lower year on year compared to FY2025.
- Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improved by ~10.8%: The EAF has improved from 54.55% in FY2023 to ~65.35% in FY2026, a gain of ~10.8%, reflecting stronger generation reliability and power system stability. EAF reached or exceeded 70% on more than 83 occasions during FY26.
- Unplanned losses, reduced by ~7.1GW: Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) measuring unplanned losses, reduced by ~7.1GW, declining from 16.5GW to ~9.1GW as at 31 March 2026, a reduction exceeding one‑and‑a‑half times the capacity of Kusile Power Station.
- Planned maintenance increased, averaging 5.4GW: Planned maintenance increasing from an average of 4.7GW in FY2023 to peaks of around 8.0GW, with an annual average of 5.4GW in FY2026, strengthening long‑term plant reliability while temporarily reducing available capacity.
Together, these improvements supported a period, as of today, of 341 consecutive days without loadshedding.
Financial, Governance and Institutional Strengthening
Sustained operational improvements and financial discipline resulted in Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings upgrading Eskom’s credit rating for the first time in over a decade. Eskom also recorded a 2.1% year‑on‑year improvement in pre‑tax profit and a 1.6% improvement in EBITDA in FY2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost discipline (subject to the finalisation of the audit).
Eskom’s Board has been reconstituted with skilled professionals, blending continuity with strengthened technical, financial and governance expertise.
The utility was also certified as a Top Employer for the second consecutive year, reflecting Eskom’s commitment to employee development, capability building and organisational stability.
Energy security decisions and the path ahead
Since the last Power System Outlook on 5 September 2025, the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 was gazetted on 28 October 2025 by the Minister of Electricity and Energy, providing updated policy direction on the optimal electricity supply mix and the timing of new generation capacity.
In line with this policy framework, Eskom’s approach remains unchanged, and it continues to apply a rigorous and evidence‑based assessment to determine whether planned new generation capacity will be delivered within the required timeframes to support the orderly shutdown, repowering, and repurposing of the five older coal‑fired power stations, in alignment with security of supply and just energy transition considerations. Eskom expects to take the decision by around Quarter 2 FY2027 (between 01 July 2026 – 30 September 2026).
This is to ensure the security of supply is maintained, the gains achieved to date are not reversed and the critical capacity to support economic growth is protected to enable long-term investment decisions by business to be supported.
Any delays in new capacity delivery present a critical risk to supply adequacy between 2029 and 2030, as confirmed by the Medium‑Term System Adequacy Outlook 2025 conducted by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA).
Eskom also notes that since the IRP2019, only about 50% of the awarded renewable projects with grid allocation and power offtake agreements have been built, highlighting the need for stronger coordination to maintain energy security while meeting emissions‑reduction targets.
The new capacity required by 2030 requires the collective delivery by Eskom and IPPs of a combined rollout of approximately 10.3GW of Solar PV, 7.4GW of Wind, 3.7GW of energy storage, and 6GW of Gas to ensure energy security.
Dispatchable capacity, particularly baseload gas‑to‑power available on a continuous 24/7 basis, remains a critical enabler for the large‑scale integration of renewable energy and the preservation of overall system and network reliability. As a disciplined and efficient system operator, Eskom will continue to responsibly operate, maintain, and safeguard the five coal‑fired power stations until new generation capacity is contractually secured and demonstrably available.
Eskom remains firmly on track to achieve its Climate Investment Funds target of reducing greenhouse‑gas emissions by 71 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2025 and 2030, subject to final confirmation.
Managing the Transition to Net Zero
Eskom has consistently maintained that the pathway to net zero is complex and must be technology‑led. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 provides for the development of a clean‑coal technologies demonstration plant by 2030. In alignment with this policy position, Eskom, in collaboration with key research and industry partners, intends to develop a High‑Efficiency, Low‑Emissions (HELE) demonstration plant to assess cost competitiveness while supporting the responsible and transitional use of coal.
Eskom is pursuing a portfolio‑based approach to emissions reduction, with its research and development division demonstrating encouraging progress in direct sorbent injection (DSI) trials and ammonia co‑firing. These technologies offer potentially lower‑cost emissions‑reduction pathways compared to conventional flue gas desulphurisation, while supporting system reliability and security of supply.
Progress in Phasing Out Load Reduction at Community Level
To build on the current momentum of our phased national programme, we are working in close collaboration with the Department of Electricity and Energy (DEE) and relevant stakeholders to accelerate the elimination of load reduction. This programme has already yielded results, with the Northern Cape and Western Cape now fully removed from load reduction schedules. Nationally, more than 340,000 customers who previously faced load reduction are no longer experiencing it, ensuring continuous supply during the winter period
A key part of the programme is the installation of more than 600 000 smart meters, which improve network visibility, support better load management and help stabilise local electricity networks. In addition, 2 119 customers have been connected through distributed energy resources (DER) to strengthen electricity supply in areas where network limitations previously contributed to load reduction.
By September 2026, Eskom expects that about 60% of feeders currently affected by load reduction, 573 out of 971, will be removed from load reduction, with the remaining feeders addressed progressively by 2027.
Notes:
- The latest Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2025 can be found at Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2025-2029
