What does 2024 have in store for South Africans? What will the political landscape look like, will our economy strengthen, what about job security, load shedding and crime? Leading South African online research company, infoQuest, posed these and more questions to 2809 South Africans across all demographic groups and the results are extremely interesting.
Expectations for 2024
Political outlook
As South Africans await a definite national election date, their outlook on the political situation in 2024 is far from favourable. The state of the country’s leadership and the health of democracy is expected to worsen in 2024. Three in four South Africans expect corruption to get worse, while only 16% believe, or are hopeful, that our corruption state will improve. Older individuals’ expectations are more negative than younger people.
The Economy and Job Security
Expectations about our economic health and job security are also not optimistic. 2023 was a tough year for the South African economy, with the expected annual growth rate to be negative. While unemployment has improved marginally, it is still over 30% and will only improve with positive economic growth. During 2023, 17% of South Africans reported losing their jobs, with those in the lower income groups most affected.
Power and Water Supply
Load shedding has become an integral part of daily life in South Africa. The Daily Investor (https://dailyinvestor.com/energy/40211/eskoms-2023-load-shedding-disaster/) reports that there were almost double the amount of load shedding hours in 2023 than there were in 2022 and that Eskom initiated more higher level load shedding periods in 2023 than in the previous year. While alternative energy projects involving solar and wind are underway, it will take time to witness any benefits from these projects. In the meantime, South Africans are bracing themselves, with 65% believing that the situation will deteriorate in 2024.
People in many parts of the country have also experienced water interruptions during 2023, mainly due to badly maintained infrastructure which needs to be repaired and maintained. 43% of South Africans are expecting this situation to get worse during 2024.
Social Cohesion & GBV
About 1 in 2 South Africans expect social cohesion (people from different backgrounds and ethnicities getting along) to improve in 2024 and younger South Africans tend to be more positive. What is disconcerting is that 53% expect gender based violence (GBV) to get worse in 2024, with only 1 in 3 expecting this offence to get better. On a national level, 8% of South Africans claimed to have been a victim of gender based violence in their own homes during 2023, with the incidence higher in the 18–24 age group (12%). Amongst males, the incidence of gender based violence was 7%, compared with 10% for females. These results should be interpreted with caution and may be under-read as individuals may not always want to disclose that they have been a victim.
Safety, Security & Crime
The incidence of violent crime in South Africa remains a problem. Accurate crime statistics are hard to come by, but in 2023, 1 in 3 South Africans was a victim of crime where something valuable was taken from them. This was the case across all income groups. In terms of crime which resulted in physical harm, this occurred for 11% of individuals in 2023, and it appears that South Africans do not expect the crime situation to improve this year – in fact 61% expect it to worsen. People also do not have much faith in law enforcement by the police, with 51% believing that it will get worse this year.
Health, Education and Sports
42% of South Africans expect the country’s healthcare system to worsen in 2024, with more older than younger people holding this view. Opinions were mixed with regards to the state of the education system in 2024 but it is encouraging that more South Africans believe that our education system will improve in 2024, than those who believe it will get worse. 1 in 2 expect sports infrastructure and governance to improve. Over the past year, 1 in 4 (24%) Sout h Africans claim that they had suffered from a decline in their physical health, while 25% stated that they experienced a decline in mental health.
Press Freedom & Judicial Independence
40% believe that press freedom in South Africa will improve in 2024, while 31% expect it to worsen. There are similar proportions who expect judicial independence to get better and worse in the coming year. The fairly large proportion of those who are ‘unsure’ indicates the uncertainty around these topics.
Personal Issues
South Africans are quite optimistic that their lifestyles, marriages and leisure time will improve in 2024, but less so about job security and their finances keeping up with the cost of living.
As South Africa steps into 2024, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture with a tapestry of expectations and aspirations woven across various facts of life. While there is collective hope for political stability, robust economic growth, social transformation, crime mitigation and reliable utility services, South Africans’ downbeat expectations for the coming year paint a discouraging picture of national issues.
‘South Africans are however resilient and face challenges with strength and determination. They seldom allow themselves to be overwhelmed and always make the best of any situation. With this foundation, South Africans stand poised to navigate the complexities of the year ahead,’ stated Arnold Samuels, Research Director, infoQuest.
About infoQuest: https://infoquest.africa/
