Is it a matter of being a sharp bettor rather than a casual one? Are you chasing value rather than giving yourself the room to enjoy betting as a pastime without any strings attached? Are you looking to prove to the market that you have what it takes to be right?
Depending on the type of bet that you want to place, you adopt various strategic elements that can have an ultimate effect on how you shape your betting experience and meet your wagering goals. It’s all about the sharp twists and margins of making the right moves, demonstrating pristine timing, and proving that you know what to move with or against the tides of the market.
Since the primary price that any bettor considers is the one that is the one that can bring them the most value, strategy is a kaleidoscope of circumstances that has a wide range of applicability. Whether you use BetBrain to compare offerings, go by your pure instinct, or go to painstaking efforts to understand all the variables that go into your bets, the kind of results that you generate are those that define your investments.
In the grand scheme of the current market of sports betting, there are numerous avenues to understand and chase value. It’s not about profit pushing, but, rather, a commitment to making smart decisions based on sound processes and ideas.
In this article, we will do the title justice and present the ideas of betting at the opening line, the closing line, and what each concept represents and can offer.
What betting lines are we talking about?
As you may know from the American side of the betting world, the (betting) lines that we’re talking about are the way of showcasing odds. Negative lines represent the odds for the favorite, while positive lines represent the odds of the underdog. There’s also the spread, which tries to calculate the perceived differences between competitive parties.
Since each line represents a set of odds, they are the ones that have the most direct effect on your betting record. Wins and losses for a competitor, team or individual athlete, just as much as minutiae that are part of the proposition betting scheme, are particular details that have a very strong bearing on how you perceive the betting lines and their effects.
However, we need to return to the part about timing. Each moment during a setup of odds will always require specific calculations and circumstantial movements.
The proprietary formula of mainstream bookmakers, such as Pinnacle’s data-driven bookmaking process, uses statistical rigor to determine the chances of success before an event. With retail bookies, you need to add the juice (vigorish), which is the commission that each bookmaker keeps, and you have a supposition-based set of odds.
Opening lines—initial pricing and the shot in the dark
The opening lines are the most fitting when it comes to the tentative explanation that I presented above. They are the initial impressions of a bookmaker who intends to set a price that is both relevant and attractive.
Naturally, the attractiveness of an offering tends to depend on the general popularity of that event. If it’s a niche or lower-level element, it needs a bit of wind in its sails, which can drive a more competitive price that attracts more bettors.
First of all, you have the aforementioned proprietary formula that creates the initial pricing. Once the initial results that drive the odds based on probability start circulating around the industry, various modifications and commissions start appearing, creating discrepancies across the market.
Second of all, these are lines that are relevant at the start of the bookmaking cycle, which means that they account for the circumstances from that moment.
Is it all about beating the market?
Since there are certain elements that go into it, such as trying to gain a competitive edge, this is where the market can turn in your favor.
For instance, the need to create an attractive offer or reliance on a certain data model can make bookmakers overextend to a degree that simply does not make sense. In this instance, the best way to go about it is to consider your own calculations.
It’s how the sharp bettors make their moves. These are the whales that have a certain reputation for efficient betting, including the tipsters who provide their guidance online. In this instance, they are the ones who see the kind of bets that take advantage of these opening line discrepancies.
Closing lines—all things considered, literally
When every detail is on the line and the game is ready to kick off, you have the closing line. Simply put, you are dealing with the final modifications in lines/odds, based on circumstances that may have occurred in the meantime. However, it is not the only type of situation that creates changes between the starting and closing lines.
We’d like to return to the concept of sharp betting. Bookmakers know their clientele very well, especially the clients who have a record of beating the house. When a bettor gains enough clout to prove that their bets have a certain logic and meaning, the house takes notice of their wagers, and adjust their odds based on what they see from them.
However, it’s not all about seeing what the elite bettors. It’s also about the tide of bets that the majority makes. If there is a large number of bettors that end up flocking to a certain outcome, it may be that the bookmaker overextended itself and needs to adjust.
Naturally, outsider circumstances will always have a very powerful word to say in this dynamic. You have various elements with a lot of sway, especially injuries, line-up shake-ups, results that can change a team’s motivation, and even weather reports. Every time there is a circumstantial change, it can change the line.
Did it pay off being risk-averse?
In theory, betting on the opening line as opposed to the closing one is all about making sure that you are betting on better odds for an event that is likely to go your way. It can be a method of anticipating circumstances and obtaining a positive closing line value, which boosts the overall value of your bets.
However, it can move in the other direction, with the gaping difference between the competitors opening up and leading you into negative value. This is when it shows that it may have been better to just wait for the right circumstances!
Conclusion
To conclude, the idea is to make sure that you have a positive experience overall. Since the main denominator of this dynamic is safety and entertainment, the best way to go about your business is to have fun and bet responsibly!
